Saturday, March 12, 2011

Nuclear vs Coal power, or how intelligent people fear the unknown

Last night I was dealing with panic and misinformation from a variety of people, who saw the stories out of Japan regarding the Fukushima I power plant and saw flashbacks of Chernobyl. There were calls to outright ban nuclear power. I spent the time to explain the benefits, drawbacks, and differences between different kinds of nuclear power, and tried to show how painting it with such a broad brush was harmful and dishonest. In my discussions, we got to discussing the direct health impact of nuclear accidents, so I went to study an actual comparison between Nuclear and coal.

Once I studied them, it became apparent that the total amount of health issues caused by an accident such as this is still dwarfed by the health issues caused by traditiona­l coal and oil power generation­. Example, the Chernobyl accident caused an estimated 200,000 deaths in the 20 years after it. Dividing by the total power that nuclear plants generated in the Soviet Union at the time of the accident according to the Russian nuclear agency, 210 Gigawatts, that means per kilowatt hour capacity, it killed 0.0009 people over those 20 years. Now, let's take a traditiona­l coal plant. The American Lung Associatio­n lists that coal plants kill an average 13,000 people a year in the United States due to health effects of the burning of coal. Add to that the health effects of mining for coal, which according to the CDC kills approximat­ely 8,000 people a year, bringing the total to 21,000 people per year. Multiply that by the same 20 year period, we get 420,000. The total power generation for coal in the US is 300 GW, bringing it to 0.0014 death per kWh. Which means, per kWh, nuclear, even with an accident, is still healthier than coal power.

Coming back to the Japanese nuclear plant, it looks as if the leaked radioactive gasses were minimal, and that the peak of radiation was still far lower than feared. We're still talking about getting in an hour what normally people would be exposed to in a year. However, the gas released was far lower in radiation, giving the equal to someone smoking two cigarettes by the worst case estimation. As of right now, Japan has written off the core, and is pumping the dome full of seawater in order to prevent a core meltdown. This will destroy the core, while previous methods were done with an attempt to try and save it. They have determined now that the steam being created by the previous methods interacted with zinc storage chambers inside the building outside of the containment dome, causing a dangerous buildup of hydrogen gas, causing the explosion last night. This is why they decided on the more direct, but destructive method being employed now. The core will be cooled to the point it can begin the process of disassembly and disposal by the end of next week they predict.

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